CHANDIGARH: Haryana was buzzing louder than a beehive on Tuesday.
The action began abruptly with the man whom PM Modi had ridden pillion with all those years ago, Manohar Lal Khattar, stepping down with his cabinet ministers in the morning.
Along the way, the baggage that the BJP felt was Dushyant Chautala, the great grandson of ex-Deputy CM Devi Lal, was jettisoned. Then, Nayab Saini, the BJP state president, emerged as Khattar’s successor.
Even as people were wrapping their heads around why Khattar, who had come in for praise on Sunday from PM Modi, was axed just a day later came the announcement of the 69-year-old ex-CM being in the second list of BJP candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. So, was there a grand plan all along?
Insiders say the aim was to ensure that BJP had new talking points in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls and assembly elections later this year.
Remember the Gujarat experiment?
The ground for the switch over had been laid silently to ward off any anti-incumbency against Khattar who had been in the saddle since 2014, they say.
The formula that was employed in Haryana had in fact been earlier tried and tested by the BJP in other states.
“The idea behind such replacements is the infusion of fresh blood and creation of a younger line of leadership. This approach explains the smoothness of Chief Ministerial transitions that otherwise seem hard to achieve,” said a party leader.
Another senior BJP leader explained the thinking behind the move further.
“The BJP still rules the psyche of the Haryana voters but what was reported was a higher degree of anti-incumbency at an individual level against Khattar saab. The party is learnt to have had this in mind but they have replaced him with his own close confidant (Nayab Saini). This means the ex-CM will remain at the helm, albeit indirectly, and anti-incumbency will also be mitigated to a great extent.”
A leading political analyst Professor Ashutosh Kumar, who teaches political science at Panjab University in Chandigarh, agreed.
“To fight the anti-incumbency factor, the changing of guard is a standard strategy adopted by most of the parties especially the BJP under the Modi and Shah dispensation. The party follows the Gujarat experiment where more than 50 per cent MLAs have not been given tickets,” he observed.
An eye on the OBC vote — and not just in Haryana
Professor Kumar added: “Khattar has been Chief Minister for nine and half years. So, to change him and bring in a new face was always on the cards. By making Nayab Singh Saini, an Other Backward Classes (OBC) leader, as the Chief Minister, the saffron party played a smart move as this community has 8 per cent of the votes. They are numerically strong community and remember Sainis have never enjoyed power. Now that a person from their community is the CM, they are bound to be enthused.”
It also helps that Saini is regarded in the BJP as a humble and a non-controversial political figure. He had strenghtened his grip on party affairs since becoming the state president and that will help going forward.
Saini as Chief Minister also serves a larger purpose for the BJP.
With the Congress and its allies, the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and the RJD in Bihar, turning more aggressive in wooing the OBC, the BJP is making all attempts to have the community in their corner during the Lok Sabha elections.
Their efforts began with making Mohan Yadav the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. Saini’s elevation will help them to build their narrative of empowering the OBCs further.
“It will be a fitting reply to opposition OBC satraps like SP president Akhilesh Yadav and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, both heirs to powerful political families,” remarked a source, adding that Bihar will be the next state where the BJP will project an OBC candidate who is able to take on the RJD.
It must be remembered that Bihar BJP president and Deputy CM Samarat Chaudhary is a leading OBC face.
The split with Dushyant Chautala and how it helps BJP
Getting back to Haryana, the BJP by bolstering their hold among OBCs is also giving itself an added cushion. It comes after the party’s decision to snap ties with JJP, which commanded over 15% of the vote in the seats it contested in the last assembly elections. The JJP’s primary support base is among the Jats.
The alliance between the two parties came apart following differences in seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. A meeting held between JJP leader Dushyant Chautala and BJP president JP Nadda some time back had remained inconclusive as Dushyant lobbied for two seats — Hisar and Bhiwani–Mahendragarh — in the Lok Sbaha.
The now ex-Haryana Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala’s JJP is a breakaway faction of the Indian National Lok Dal and was formed in 2019, right ahead of the assembly election.
Sources said that if JJP goes it alone in the Lok Sabha polls, it could still work to the advantage of the BJP.
“If the JJP goes it alone as they are now determined to, they will divide the Jat vote, which constitutes 20%, between themselves and the Congress. So, the ultimate beneficiary will be the BJP. This would have been in the BJP’s calculations too” they said.
But there is a bigger possible headache at hand for Dushyant which again works to the BJP’s advantage — a rebellion from some of his MLAs.
Five of them, Jogi Ram Sihag, Ram Kumar Gautam, Ishwar Singh, Ramniwas and Devinder Babli, skipped a meeting Dushyant had called in Delhi on Monday. They attended the swearing ceremony of new Chief Minister and on Tuesday were in the assembly but left before the trust vote. These lawmakers are likely to form a breakaway group and might support the BJP.
